Exploring the impact of digital technology on conflict dynamics and peace operations

It is an increasingly complex digital world that UN peacekeeping must navigate. A set of semi-fictional scenarios helps to contextualise the goals and pathways outlined in the recently adopted Strategy for the Digital Transformation of UN Peacekeeping and makes this complexity tangible for multiple target audiences.

The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a considerable acceleration in the adoption of digital technologies in peacemaking operations. Such a rapid change, unthinkable a few years ago, is significant for practitioners and calls for professionalising the use of digital technologies in dialogue efforts, otherwise known as ‘digital peacemaking’. In particular, peacemakers would greatly benefit from increasing their digital literacy, acquiring online facilitation skills, considering the integration of digital solutions during the process design phase of dialogue efforts and the development of adequate technologies to address their specific needs. Yet, three myths hamper the development of digital peacemaking.

In the last ten years, the UN developed multiple strategies and initiatives on the topic of (digital) technologies, associated risks and their untapped potential. To provide an overview of UN actions, ZIF mapped relevant resolutions, strategies, reform initiatives, and policies that were launched both within the UN system and with a specific focus on peacekeeping. The results are illustrated in the visualisation "Mapping the momentum - the UN, digital technologies and peacekeeping", which shows that there is system-wide strategic direction, but that peacekeeping as yet lacks the same level of comprehensive assessment and future perspective.

Jakkie Cilliers takes us on his own journey of promoting peace and security in Africa – from qualitative research and policy development to long-term forecasting. Underlining the link between stability and prosperity, he illustrates the increasing divergence between Africa and the rest of the world. Under additional looming pressure from climate security and Covid-19, Africa might nonetheless turn a corner, if the continent can take advantage of the technologies to leapfrog, achieve trade integration, and more rapidly realize its demographic dividend. In their contribution to stability, peace operations, too, must play the long game and recognise the time it takes to transition from a war-economy to one characterised by peace and development.

Five years after the Expert Panel on Technology and Innovation in UN Peacekeeping (known as the TIP panel) presented its report, it is time for another review that reflects recent developments in the fast-moving world of technology. The new Expert Panel should build on lessons from the implementation of the 2015 TIP report, as well as on innovation and progress generated in the field. Charting the future of peace operations, now is the time to explore how technologies can better detect, prevent and mitigate threats to peace.

The interdependencies of information and communications technologies (ICTs) in all forms of peacebuilding and peace operations pre-date the pandemic. As much as violence and its generation are enabled by digital platforms, including social media, these platforms also contribute to and help in conflict transformation, including the mitigation of hate, toxicity and violence.

Just as digital technologies have led to a changed nature of warfare, so too, could they change the nature of peace operations if harnessed well. In today’s era of fake news and hate speech, conflict moves fluidly between the ground and cyber realm. Peace operations currently lack the ability to pre-empt or counter these new dimensions of strife, but they might be able to do so if the technical capacity of staff were increased and a culture of data collection and use fostered.