100 Voices on Technology &
Peace Operations

In 2018, the first EU Civilian CSDP Compact created the possibility of mandating missions to respond to hybrid threats. Then, in April 2023, the EU Partnership Mission in the Republic of Moldova (EUPM Moldova) became the first CSDP mission with a mandate in the area of hybrid threats. The comparatively small mission is above all a political signal. However, it can be assumed that these types of tasks will increasingly be included in the mandates of peace operations in the future.

There is a huge amount of publicly available information ready for peace operations analysts to be used and evaluated to better understand their area of operations. However, without Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning tools supporting Open-Source Intelligence employed for real-time conflict monitoring it would be impossible to exploit its full potential for peace operations.

Ceasefires play an important role in the prevention of further conflict and armed violence. Not only are they a crucial component of the broader conflict-prevention toolkit, but they are often a first step towards a peace agreement. While ceasefire monitoring and verification is usually conducted by in-person monitors, this may not always be possible due to non-permissive environments. In such instances, technology can help overcome these challenges, as well as extend the range of monitoring and the pace of data synthesis.

Despite its potential, the digital revolution has not transformed gender justice. As peace operations venture down the path of digital transformation, they must carefully consider both the potential opportunities and the pitfalls that technology presents, especially taking note of what can be a gendered tool of oppression and continued marginalisation. While technology has the power to enable, it also has the capacity to disempower.

Hybrid threats are an increasingly complex security challenge for the EU, also affecting its civilian CSDP missions. Malign actors target the EU at large and aim to derail EU’s global engagement, not least through information manipulation. Both the EU’s Strategic Compass and the Civilian CSDP Compact have recognised the challenge and led to initiatives to tackle hybrid threats including toolboxes and response teams.

Our lives and what happens in them is no longer limited to the physical environment we live in. Increasingly, what is happening online has repercussions offline and vice versa. Humanitarian protection practitioners need to be present on both fronts, but the question is how to do this and what it means to provide humanitarian protection in the digital space?

NATO is based on traditional notions of deterrence and defence against armed attack. These notions are giving way to a complex mix of military and non-military threats that can also affect societies from within. The “hybrid” combination of military and non-military tools creates ambiguity that makes decision-taking by consensus much harder. Here are ten recommendations for how the organisation can respond to hybrid challenges.

It is an increasingly complex digital world that UN peacekeeping must navigate. A set of semi-fictional scenarios helps to contextualise the goals and pathways outlined in the recently adopted Strategy for the Digital Transformation of UN Peacekeeping and makes this complexity tangible for multiple target audiences.

UN Peacekeeping took a major step forward with the adoption of the Strategy for the Digital Transformation of UN Peacekeeping. Embracing a fuller use of new technologies to support mandate implementation and better protect civilians and peacekeepers, now requires innovation, comprehensive and committed action, and principled approaches to mitigate risks.

Quality data are critical for development interventions to be effective but are hard to obtain in fragile contexts. In Anbar/Iraq, the 2020 founded GIZ Data Lab experiment “Data in fragile contexts” explores new ways to utilize alternative data sources in order to better understand contextual realities on the ground and how they correlate with conflict dynamics. 

Partnerships can help foster new thinking and innovation in peace operations. When exploring which partners to cooperate with, peace operations can look to novel and innovative partnerships in neighbouring fields like that of humanitarian assistance. One good example is the collaboration between the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and humanitarian actors. The Humanitarian Technology Initiative aims to further develop cutting-edge aerospace technologies for humanitarian purposes and apply them on the ground. One project is the use of satellite data for the detection of human rights violations.

There is new momentum behind the use of digital technologies to prevent conflict and to make or build peace. Artificial Intelligence offers the promise of more effective conflict analysis and more inclusive peace processes, but also faces the peril of reinforcing new exclusions and hierarchies of digital access. Balancing the promise and the peril will be necessary to unlock the prospects of inclusive peacemaking through inclusive AI design, data collection and data analysis.

A shared language among peacekeepers and with the host population is critical. Language training, in particular for listening and speaking, across tens of thousands of peacekeepers seems unworkable. Fortunately, the rapidly falling costs of digital tools, especially involving virtual reality, offer the possibility to do this effectively and at a large scale.

In 2019, UN Secretary-General António Guterres described hate speech as "poison" and a "global danger”. Hate speech impacts international peace operations by undermining mandate implementation, in particular political processes, and tarnishing a mission’s credibility. The "tsunami of hate" that the UN observed in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic once again raised awareness about the digital spread of harmful information and the need for effective countermeasures.

ZIF talks to Maude Morrison, Social Media and Conflict Mediation Adviser at the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, about why peace operations and their mandating organizations should make more effective use of social media, what options exist, and why it’s easier to implement than you might think. She reflects on the growing awareness of the role of technology in peace mediation, including for analysis, strategic communications and enhancing inclusivity, but also points out to social media as a driving force in many conflicts, and as such a key area of negotiation and intervention.

The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a considerable acceleration in the adoption of digital technologies in peacemaking operations. Such a rapid change, unthinkable a few years ago, is significant for practitioners and calls for professionalising the use of digital technologies in dialogue efforts, otherwise known as ‘digital peacemaking’. In particular, peacemakers would greatly benefit from increasing their digital literacy, acquiring online facilitation skills, considering the integration of digital solutions during the process design phase of dialogue efforts and the development of adequate technologies to address their specific needs. Yet, three myths hamper the development of digital peacemaking.

How can peacekeepers, peacebuilders and mediators use social media analysis to create more impact and influence change? Based on Build Up’s recent work in Lebanon and Libya, the authors explore how social media analysis of conversations related to a conflict context actually works, and suggest five things you can actually learn about a conflict context from social media.

For missions to understand how to prioritize, how to make the best use of their resources and justify the allocation of funds and resources, it is essential to evaluate the impact of peacekeeping activities on the conflict dynamics. Linking data on peacekeeping deployments and capacities with data on the occurrence of violence irrespective of UN troop presence, it is possible to unpack practical questions on the effectiveness of peacekeeping deployments and even improve general forecasting and prediction.

In the last ten years, the UN developed multiple strategies and initiatives on the topic of (digital) technologies, associated risks and their untapped potential. To provide an overview of UN actions, ZIF mapped relevant resolutions, strategies, reform initiatives, and policies that were launched both within the UN system and with a specific focus on peacekeeping. The results are illustrated in the visualisation "Mapping the momentum - the UN, digital technologies and peacekeeping", which shows that there is system-wide strategic direction, but that peacekeeping as yet lacks the same level of comprehensive assessment and future perspective.

For almost 20 years, ICT has enabled new modes of communication among authorities and citizens during crises. How then might insights gained apply to and benefit peace operations? One entry point for communication in complex and unstable environments is to develop tools and practices that foster the involvement of citizens. But a thorough understanding of connectivity, access and usage, local risk culture and – not least – levels of trust is a prerequisite for shaping the tools and channels used to communicate during crises.

In recent years, peace operations have been under much pressure and scrutiny regarding their effectiveness, funding, coordination and coherence. Training for peace operations is no exception here and most recently has been particularly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. While the pandemic has severely limited traditional in-person training, it has also opened up opportunities for re-thinking training approaches. To fully take advantage of these opportunities, a stocktaking of delivery capabilities, trainer skills and curricula will have to take place.

Jakkie Cilliers takes us on his own journey of promoting peace and security in Africa – from qualitative research and policy development to long-term forecasting. Underlining the link between stability and prosperity, he illustrates the increasing divergence between Africa and the rest of the world. Under additional looming pressure from climate security and Covid-19, Africa might nonetheless turn a corner, if the continent can take advantage of the technologies to leapfrog, achieve trade integration, and more rapidly realize its demographic dividend. In their contribution to stability, peace operations, too, must play the long game and recognise the time it takes to transition from a war-economy to one characterised by peace and development.

A conversation with the World Bank’s Wolfgang Fengler. Having worked on initiatives to make data accessible and to track progress on key issues like poverty, hunger or gender, Wolfgang Fengler shares insights from data-driven projects he has been involved in. Citing examples from Sierra Leone, Kenya, Yemen, Mozambique and Georgia, he suggests how these models might apply in the context of peace operations.

Early warning has been a perennial challenge for peacekeeping operations. While there has been some progress in the context of efforts to protect civilians, analyses should be supplemented by a data-driven early warning system to help identify threats and promote early and preventive action. To arrive at predictive peacekeeping, this can be further augmented with machine learning tools. But the UN must address five key challenges when implementing a data-driven early warning system to mitigate possible negative side effects.

Even before the current pandemic, there was a critical need to develop new, digitized and distributed solutions to education and training for peace operations. For the near future, travel restrictions and fiscal constraints will most likely further increase this need. The Norwegian Defence University College (NDUC) has recently developed an innovative, stand-alone e-learning programme on human security and the role of the military, which fills a gap in existing education by answering the critical question of "when to do what" when perpetrators target civilians in armed conflict.

High-paced technological change is having a major impact on society, including how public sector agencies operate and interact with citizens. This creates opportunities as well as an urgent need for international peace operations to revisit the focus of their activities. Now is the time to seize opportunities to support citizen-oriented initiatives that have a sustainable positive impact on societies and thus help maintain peace.

Increased reliance on digital technology has had a tremendous transformative effect. While there are clear advances with regard to digital collaboration and exchange, Cyberspace has quietly emerged as a distinct “fifth domain” of conflict over the last 20 years – affecting developed and developing, conflict-ridden and peaceful societies alike. Rules of engagement are urgently needed but difficult to agree on – not least because the transnational nature of cyber threats is at odds with traditional state-to-state mechanisms of negotiation and decision-making. Recent attacks have led to some momentum in this process, but to be effective and sustainable international governance architecture needs to be revamped to include a wider spectrum of stakeholders in new systems and structures.

UN peace operations need to employ new technologies to enhance their ability to implement their mandates more effectively. But these technologies will not be fully effective in improving peacekeeper performance, if missions don’t have the right structures, policies, and personnel to manage them. There are four key issues that UN Member States and the UN Secretariat need to tackle to build a foundation for the effective adoption of new technologies.

Peace operations are expected to deliver on mandates, protect civilians and promote peace in contexts that are characterized by complex conflict dynamics, operating environments and a constellation of actors. Despite these uncertainties and the tendency towards day-to-day firefighting in (post-)conflict areas, futures studies and foresight tools offer opportunities for strengthening longer term strategic planning, managing exponential change and building resilience in preparedness for peace operations.

International organisations are playing catch-up to the rapid development of emerging technologies and greater digitalisation. As of today, international actors such as the United Nations and the European Union at least agree that artificial intelligence (AI), 5G, Big Data and even quantum computing, are likely to affect every area of life in profound - if uncertain - ways. How these technological developments are likely to impact peacekeeping and crisis management is unclear.

Five years after the Expert Panel on Technology and Innovation in UN Peacekeeping (known as the TIP panel) presented its report, it is time for another review that reflects recent developments in the fast-moving world of technology. The new Expert Panel should build on lessons from the implementation of the 2015 TIP report, as well as on innovation and progress generated in the field. Charting the future of peace operations, now is the time to explore how technologies can better detect, prevent and mitigate threats to peace.

The interdependencies of information and communications technologies (ICTs) in all forms of peacebuilding and peace operations pre-date the pandemic. As much as violence and its generation are enabled by digital platforms, including social media, these platforms also contribute to and help in conflict transformation, including the mitigation of hate, toxicity and violence.

Unlocking the power of technology in support of peace arguably requires us to first grapple with uncomfortable questions, honestly challenge why we look to technology for answers, and only then consider how digital technologies can assist in strategic communication and outreach, as well as in running a mission and being accountable. Two decades at the World Bank, including as the Global Lead for Stability Peace and Security, extensive field observation and HQ collaboration between the UN and the World Bank have shaped my understanding of UN peace operations and led to the following reflections.

Just as digital technologies have led to a changed nature of warfare, so too, could they change the nature of peace operations if harnessed well. In today’s era of fake news and hate speech, conflict moves fluidly between the ground and cyber realm. Peace operations currently lack the ability to pre-empt or counter these new dimensions of strife, but they might be able to do so if the technical capacity of staff were increased and a culture of data collection and use fostered.